Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Why the current Timberwolve's roster will never work

I've heard a lot of talk about Kevin Love and the Timberwolves. I take that back, I heard one person say something in passing about the Timberwolves once. Or maybe it was a Game of Thrones reference to direwolves.  I guess what I'm getting at is that small market teams will lose their fan base pretty quickly if they're not competitive. I am an avid Bucks fan and have irrational hope for the future with Giannis and Henson as centerpieces, but I'm not going to watch them get embarrassed on a nightly basis.  How do you think fans in Philly feel right now? The management should be sued for emotional damages for what they did to that squad. They may have talent next year but players don't just forget about being the worst team in the history of tanking, all for a 25 percent chance at the number one overall pick who is no longer clear cut selection. But I'll save that for another time.  This T-Wolves roster is doomed, and it started with signing Pek to that contract.

I happen to love Pekovic. I wrote an article while I was at Augsburg a couple years ago about how he was already one of the best low-post players in the game, and he was averaging something like 8 points a game at that point.  But let me clarify what I mean by low-post player: someone who's offense is based on backing down their man, and using strength, ball fakes or a soft touch to put the ball in the hoop at a high percentage. And at the same token, an all around post player can use strength to push his player off the block and force a post player into a lower percentage shot with good straight up defense. There was a time when this was an incredibly valued skill and somewhat common.  The golden age of centers in the 90's will never return because players don't know how to bang anymore, they would rather fade away or shoot a 15 footer (high-post). I love watching ESPN classic games that feature Shaquille O'Neil, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, or my favorite-- Hakeem Olajuwon. Observe the beauty of the dream shake against an all-time great defender, the Admiral. The best low-post player in the game right now is Al Jefferson who is still pretty fun to watch, but is only now in his career starting to pass and play defense (kind of). It's a bi-product of not playing in college or learning the team concept (he averaged 42 points, 18 rebounds and 7 blocks per game in high school, I'm not sure if he registered an assist). Embiid showed some flashes of a post game this year at Kansas, including this beauty.  Imagine if Dwight Howard had gone to college and learned some offense, he would have been an absolute monster with the current status of the new hybrid centers like DeAndre Jordan who wouldn't (and doesn't) stand a chance in the post.  Pekovic is right at the stop based on his surprising combination of strength and touch.  I honestly believe he could be the focal point of an offense that could slow the game down and toss him the ball in the post; he can get any shot that he wants with good positioning, it would only be a matter of finishing (which he does without much of a vertical). He still needs to work on passing out of the double team, but that's part of the progression, hopefully. Defensively, his strength allows him to push his opponent off of the block every time. 20 years ago, it would have been crucial. Now it helps against Al Jefferson, and that's about it since everyone else will just shoot over him.

The problem is that he is a god-awful fit alongside Kevin Love.  Neither one plays an ounce of defense. I can't dunk, but watching them attempt to protect the hoop makes me think that I could throw it down in their faces by jumping off of their chest. They are not entirely to blame, they do not have the physical tools or the mental makeup to be willing to get posterized by going after everything near the hoop.  The thing I've noticed about big men is that you don't need to be a rim protector, but you need someone to watch your back.  Either the power forward or center HAS TO protect the rim, but preferably only one since it leaves you out of position because you are leaving your man.  Dirk Nowitzki has never been known as a defender. He is a decent one because he is tall and plays straight up which affects shots but he needed Tyson Chandler to win the championship because he was always there when Dirk or anyone else got taken off the dribble. Then the Knicks proceeded to set themselves back 5 years by signing him to that obnoxious contract, forgetting that it's the balance that made them so great together. Pek and Love make one of the best offensive pairings in the NBA, with Love's shooting creating space for Pek to operate, and vice versa.

The problem that the brilliantly offensive-minded Rick Carlisle has never understood is that defense and rim protection wins championships. I would argue that last years Miami Heat wouldn't have ran down the Spurs if it weren't for... wait for it... The Birdman!!!  Almost anyone in the NBA can score (watch the Lakers and see which scrub will blow up on a night-to-night basis).  Kurt Thomas averaged 28.9 points and 14.6 rebounds per game in college but played 19 years in the league through his low-post defense and being an intelligent player who averaged 8 points a game. Is there any wonder that the Vlade Divac and Chris Weber Kings couldn't contend with Shaq and Kobe? The Lakers made a living at the rim between those two (Kobe wasn't always a step-back, fade-away, three-point shooter). I'm going on record that Jason Williams was the only reason that the Kings were any good, in addition to being the most overrated player of all time. The combination of Love and Pekovic is worse defensively than the creator of the flop and the fab-five failure. Flip Saunders drafted one of my favorite players last draft in Gorgui Dieng. I have been ranting all year about his talent to anyone who will listen, I saw it the first time I watched him play. He has great footwork because he played soccer, and multi-sport athletes are always more well rounded.  He has a nice touch and good looking shot, especially for someone who hasn't been playing basketball that long.  But most importantly, he attacks every shot like it's the last he will ever see.  He ferociously goes after drives and is not afraid to get dunked on.  He is EXACTLY who Kevin Love or Nikola Pekovic needs alongside them.  He has the mentality to be an elite defender.  Once I saw him play and saw how the season progressed with the minutes he got while the Timberwolves amazing offense went to waste by getting crushed on defense, I lost all respect for Carlisle.  I know he's been going through some stuff family wise, but a quote I heard while watching a game summed it up perfectly. I will paraphrase: "The great thing about Rick Carlisle is that he really gives his assistants more responsibilities and the chance to step up and coach". Translation: He doesn't care, and is never there. Pathetic.  Dieng only got minutes because Rick had no choice due to injuries, and has promptly ripped it up.  The team will not be good while Carlisle is there and next year is the last chance to keep Love around because he will bolt if they don't make the playoffs, I promise you that.

I love the rest of the team, they are a great blend of players.  Rubio went from overrated to underrated in a short time.  He is near the top of the league in steals and assists and is a true pass-first point guard (rare).  I went to a Timberwolves game and watched him shoot before the game and he seemed to make every three pointer that he took.  I believe his issues with shooting are a combination of his mechanics taking too long to get his shot off and his doubts mentally.  I personally think that the wide open shots, which he gets, are the hardest to make because you get time to think about your shot which is surprisingly the last thing you want.  Basketball players are best when they're reacting, not thinking about mechanics or the fact that you better make it because you're open.  Kevin Martin is a very efficient scorer.  Cory Brewer has become one of my favorite players because of the energy he brings.  Shabazz will be a stud small forward for years, his relentless energy changes the complexion of games.  But they would have to pick up another shot blocker and bring Pek off the bench while starting Dieng, which coaches can't do when a player makes that much money.  It's how the business of sports puts pressure on coaches (not that Rick cares about the fact that they don't fit together). Or they could trade him.  But it would be tough to find partner to get equal value due to Pek's old-school and undervalued skill set.  The best trade imaginable would be Pek for DeAndre Jordan, but newsflash: The Clippers wouldn't make that trade in a million years. Not now that Jordan is the defensive MVP of the league with the help of a defensive minded Doc Rivers.

So they're stuck in limbo, and I would hate to see perhaps the greatest offensive frontcourt player in the league simply walk away next year.  Hopefully Flip figures it out before it's too late, because it would be a shame to waste the potential of this roster. Small-market teams have a hard enough time competing in today's NBA, I would hate to see mismanagement turn them into the western conference version of Milwaukee who might not have a franchise for much longer.  Don't forget that the Lakers were once in Minneapolis, futility can mean the end of professional sports for a region.

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